Das Ende der Globalisierung?

BRÜSSEL – China hat gerade bekannt gegeben, dass seine Exporte im letzten Jahr erstmals seit der Öffnung seiner Volkswirtschaft gegenüber der restlichen Welt Ende der 1970er Jahre auf Jahresbasis zurückgegangen sind. Und das ist noch nicht alles; wertmäßig ist der Welthandel in 2015 insgesamt zurückgegangen. Die offensichtliche Frage lautet: Warum?

Zwar ging der Welthandel auch 2009 zurück, doch damals war die Erklärung eindeutig: Die Welt erlebte damals einen steilen Einbruch des BIP. Im letzten Jahr jedoch wuchs die Weltwirtschaft um respektable 3%. Zudem sind die Handelsschranken nirgends deutlich gewachsen, und die Transportkosten sinken aufgrund des steilen Rückgangs der Ölpreise.

Aufschlussreich ist, dass der sogenannte Baltic Dry Index, der die Kosten für die Anmietung großer Schiffe misst, über die der größte Teil des Langstreckenhandels abgewickelt wird, auf Rekordtief gefallen ist. Dies zeigt, dass die Märkte nicht von einer Erholung ausgehen, was andeutet, dass die Daten aus 2015 ein neues Zeitalter sich verlangsamenden Handels einläuten könnten. Die offensichtliche Schlussfolgerung ist, dass den einst unwiderstehlichen Kräften der Globalisierung die Puste ausgeht.

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