全球化的终结?

布鲁塞尔—中国刚刚宣布,去年其出口自20世纪70年代末经济开放以来第一次出现按年下滑。这不是全部;按价值衡量,全球贸易在2015年出现了萎缩。显而易见的问题是为什么。

2009年,全球贸易也出现了下滑,但原因清晰:当时世界GDP也在剧烈萎缩。但是,去年世界经济增长率相当出色,为3%。此外,贸易壁垒也没有任何显著增加,而拜石油价格暴跌所赐,运输成本也在下降。

很能说明问题的是所谓的波罗的海干散指数,它衡量大型长途贸易货船成本。该指数下跌至有史以来最低点。这表明市场没有复苏预期,意味着2015年的数据可能预示贸易放缓的新时代。显而易见的结论是曾经不可阻挡的全球化力量正在失去动力。

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