Die Stagflation naht

New York – Die Weltwirtschaft hat eine Reihe guter Jahre hinter sich. Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum war stark, und die Kluft zwischen den Endwicklungsländern und der entwickelten Welt hat sich verkleinert. Führend dabei waren Indien und China mit einem BIP von 11,1% bzw. 9,7% in 2006 und 11,5% bzw. 8,9% in i in 2007. Selbst in Afrika war die Entwicklung mit einem Wachstum von über 5% in 2006 und 2007 gut.

Doch es könnte sein, dass die guten Zeiten zu Ende gehen. Seit Jahren gibt es Befürchtungen über die durch die enormen Auslandsschulden Amerikas verursachten globalen Ungleichgewichte. Amerika seinerseits argumentierte, die Welt sollte dankbar sein: Indem es selbst über seine Verhältnisse lebe, helfe es, die Weltwirtschaft in Gang zu halten, insbesondere angesichts der hohen Sparquoten in Asien, das Hunderte von Milliarden von Dollarreserven anhäufte. Stets jedoch wurde anerkannt, dass Amerikas Wirtschaftswachstum unter Präsident George W. Bush nicht nachhaltig war. Nun droht der Tag der Abrechnung.

Amerikas schlecht durchdachter Krieg im Irak hat dazu beigetragen, dass sich die Ölpreise seit 2003 vervierfacht haben. In den 1970er Jahren führten Ölschocks in einigen Ländern zu Inflation und in anderen zur Rezession, als die Regierungen die Zinsen erhöhten, um der Preissteigerungen Herr zu werden. Und einige Volkswirtschaften erlebten das Schlechteste beider Welten: eine Stagflation.

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