Stagflation Cometh

纽约——世界经济经历了几年的黄金时光。全球增长势头强劲,发达国家和发展中国家之间的差距有所减小,引领这波强劲增长的是印度和中国,这两个国家的国内生产总值2006年分别增长11.1% 和 9.7%,2007年分别增长11.5%和8.9%。即便是非洲的发展势头也十分强劲,2006和2007年的经济增长都超过了5%。

但美好的时光也许即将结束。近几年来,人们一直对美国巨额外债所导致的全球发展不平衡忧心忡忡。而美国却反过来说世界应该心存感激:考虑到亚洲地区存款率居高不下而形成的成千上万亿的外汇储备,全球经济正是因为有美国的超前消费才得以持续发展。但人们普遍认为在乔治·W·布什总统领导下美国的经济发展不可能持续。现在清算的日子来临了。

美国未经深思熟虑就在伊拉克发动战争导致2003年以后石油价格飞涨了四倍。在20世纪70年代,石油冲击导致政府提高利率以对抗油价上涨,致使有些国家出现通货膨胀,而有些国家则陷入经济衰退。而有些国家面临着上述两个领域可能出现的最差状况:通货滞胀。

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