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La reprise de la croissance mondiale exige des réformes

Feb 4, 2014 Sri Mulyani Indrawati

WASHINGTON, DC – C'est le retour de la croissance, non seulement aux USA, en Europe et au Japon, mais également dans les pays en développement : le PIB mondial va croître de 3,2% cette année (contre 2,4% l'année dernière). Autrement dit, 2014 sera probablement l'année du redémarrage de l'économie mondiale.

La reprise des pays avancés est de bon augure. Mais cela pose une question importante aux pays émergents ou en développement qui ont été les moteurs de la croissance mondiale au cours des cinq dernières années : maintenant que les pays à hauts revenus les rejoignent pour tirer la croissance, leur suffira-t-il de revenir à leur routine habituelle pour être compétitifs ?

La réponse est manifestement Non ! De même qu'il arrive à un athlète de recourir aux stéroïdes pour obtenir des progrès rapides sans se soumettre à un entraînement exigeant pour améliorer son endurance tout en préservant sa santé, beaucoup de pays émergents comptent sur un afflux de capitaux à court terme pour stimuler la croissance, plutôt que sur les réformes économiques et financières difficiles mais nécessaires, qu'ils retardent ou évitent. La Réserve fédérale américaine est sur le point de mettre fin à une politique monétaire exceptionnellement généreuse qui a permis une croissance "facile". Aussi, bien que ce soit plus difficile maintenant, ces pays doivent changer de stratégie pour ne pas annihiler les progrès qu'ils ont accomplis récemment.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 in all 3 Comments on this article

Zsolt Hermann Feb 9, 2014

I am not sure the solutions suggested in the article will be enough, neither for developing nor developed countries.
The whole world economy is "on steroids", meaning that it is based on the excessive, overproduction and over consumption paradigm, bubble humanity created, presuming we are outside of the closed and finite natural system we are actually part of.
We still think everything is in our hands and we can do whatever we want with this very sensitively balanced system without consequences.
This is why we are in a crisis which crisis is ongoing and deepening despite the overly optimistic starting sentence.
Moreover since humanity evolved into a totally interconnected and interdependent global human network, the ruthless, and mostly exploitative competition, our present lifestyle, economy and society is based on is self-destructive as cancer.
Thus it is not enough that we all stop using "steroids", the unnatural economy and lifestyle based on excessive artificial demand, and return to available resources and natural necessities, but we also have to switch to a global, mutually complementing and cooperating human system, fully adapting to the evolutionary conditions surrounding us.
We exist in a natural system with strict, unbending laws and principles we cannot simply invent a "sub-system" without any natural foundations and then hope for the best, ignoring all the very real warning signs around us.
- Edward Ponderer Feb 13, 2014
  
  If I might take the liberty of adding to Mr. Hermann's thoughts here:
  
  Globalization sews us into a patchwork crises extending from the socioeconomic to the ecological-climatic. There are scholarly articles and presentations aplenty on the varying aspects of this, and I would think one such as Simon Michaux’s “Peak mining & implications for natural resource management,” (see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE) should provide economists with some pause. Simply put, there are complex material realities outside the purview of standard economic theories which are, with all due respect, marching us like lemmings into the sea.
  
  Economists have the ability to reformulate from bottom-up—and they have the understanding of the assumptions of present economic theory that are clearly obsolete, in order to do this—but are not doing so for fear of admitting the obsolescence of too much of their own knowledge base, potentially themselves. I’m an engineer by trade, and I understand this fear all too well. It is the fear—if something brilliantly new and defendable doesn’t come out of the effort, and something not threatening to where one’s bread is buttered at that—of appearing obsolete oneself. That our various professions must operate under such a competitive fear instead of a collaborative, supportive integration, is truly a large part of the problem in the world today—or at least what stymies realistic solution.
  
  Economists can be part of the integrated, global team that helps to lead us through the wormhole of this crisis into a new, better world. However, this will not happen if they insist on studying this black hole with the geometry of Euclid by insisting on the physics of Newton.
  
  We are well past the event horizon, we have entered into deterministic chaos and unbalanced, acceleration as we foolishly destroy resources in production for media-generated “necessities.” Natural systems often have analogous chaotic phenomena threatening a community. By entering a behaviorally altruistic phase, the parts interact with this chaos to form a sensory and action communication across different organizational levels from the individual member up into the whole. The result is homeostasis, and may well represent THE successful evolutionary path to more complex forms of life.
  
  If bacteria colonies of 70 billion can “figure out” what to do here (See for example: Learning from Bacteria about Social Networks, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJpi8SnFXHs), a human “colony” of 7 billion ought to be able to. There is the key fact, however, that there is no centralized decision-making authority (there couldn’t be in these round-table like communal organizations), although subgroups of these “equals” come to flexibly take on different specialized tasks—naturally in a “right time, right place” manner, and these may be changed depending upon circumstances.
  
  The round-table, mutually responsible economics here may sound very alien to any classical human-made system, capitalist or socialist. But this is due to the fact that no such system ever dealt with the fundamentals of human relationship before, directly addressing the reality of human ego that destroys both types of systems. Our unstoppable globalization with it Internet/wireless brain and nervous system is also something totally alien to human history—all evolution is new.
  
  What we lack in the disciplined self-control that the biochemically-controlled automata of nature can instinctively muster, we can make up for in our genius at forming virtual environments to influence us. This is just what self-help groups do on small-scale today. If human ingenuity allies itself with Nature in this way instead of doing battle with it, the very consumerist mass media that is driving us into a black hole, can transform to pull us out the wormhole at the other end.
Ravindra Muley Feb 6, 2014

Madam, Your Article appropriately sums up the zeitgeist in the economy, the way Emerging Markets were growing for the while was certainly commendable, however suddenly we now see slow growth gripping in and now we speak of the emerging markets in new trendy terms such as “Fragile Five” etc.

There are concerns on exchange rate volatility in Turkey and India, similarly the Central Bank in India is not able to tame inflation and is using old remedies of tightening policy. For India that goes to elect new government in May, there has been slew of populist measures being thrown to garner votes, there are no structural or long term reforms happening, corruption is another big factor in Emerging economies.

The latest data on Industrial Production, the engine that churns growth numbers, is but weak for countries such as India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil and Mexico. Even current account numbers are negative for many of them. In wake of tapering the markets will see capital flight risks a factor of worry and loss on stock valuation and dampening investor sentiment.

http://prosyn.org/ebMjYBe/fr;

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La reprise de la croissance mondiale exige des réformes

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