La reprise de la croissance mondiale exige des réformes

WASHINGTON, DC – C'est le retour de la croissance, non seulement  aux USA, en Europe et au Japon, mais également dans les pays en développement : le PIB mondial va croître de 3,2% cette année (contre 2,4% l'année dernière). Autrement dit, 2014 sera probablement l'année du redémarrage de l'économie mondiale.

La reprise des pays avancés est de bon augure. Mais cela pose une question importante aux pays émergents ou en développement qui ont été les moteurs de la croissance mondiale au cours des cinq dernières années : maintenant que les pays à hauts revenus les rejoignent pour tirer la croissance, leur suffira-t-il de revenir à leur routine habituelle pour être compétitifs ?

La réponse est manifestement Non ! De même qu'il arrive à un athlète de recourir aux stéroïdes pour obtenir des progrès rapides sans se soumettre à un entraînement exigeant pour améliorer son endurance tout en préservant sa santé, beaucoup de pays émergents comptent sur un afflux de capitaux à court terme pour stimuler la croissance, plutôt que sur les réformes économiques et financières difficiles mais nécessaires, qu'ils retardent ou évitent. La Réserve fédérale américaine est sur le point de mettre fin à une politique monétaire exceptionnellement généreuse qui a permis une croissance "facile". Aussi, bien que ce soit plus difficile maintenant, ces pays doivent changer de stratégie pour ne pas annihiler les progrès qu'ils ont accomplis récemment.

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