不用类固醇的全球经济

华盛顿—经济增长回来了。不但美国、欧洲和日本终于同时开始扩张,发展中国家也重获动力。因此,世界GDP今年将增长3.2%,高于2013年的2.4%——这意味着2014年很有可能将是世界经济的转折之年。

发达经济体反弹这一事实对所有人都是好消息。但是,对于在过去五年主导全球新兴和增长的发展中国家来说,这带来了一个重要问题:如今,在高收入国家也加入增长行列的情况下,它们是否像往常一样有竞争力。

简明的回答是否定的。正如有的运动员使用类固醇来快速取得效果,而没有艰苦训练以培养耐力和保证长期健康,许多新兴经济体依靠短期资本流入(所谓的“热钱”)支持增长,推迟甚至避免困难但是必须的经济和金融改革。美联储即将收紧驱动了这一“轻松增长”的极度宽松的货币条件,这些新兴市场也必须随之改变方针,尽管它们的腾挪空间已经十分有限,否则的话,它们就有可能丧失近几年来所取得的成果。

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