Spekulanti u čerpadel

WASHINGTON – Ještě před několika týdny, kdy cena ropy prudce stoupala, probíhala vášnivá debata o relativní roli základních ekonomických ukazatelů a spekulací na rostoucí ceny ropy. A ačkoliv dnes ceny ropy ustoupily ze svého maxima, nesmí být tato debata zapomenuta, protože má hluboké politické důsledky a vládní představitelé by byli pošetilí, kdyby je ignorovali.

Pokud jsou vyšší ceny způsobeny základními ekonomickými ukazateli, pak ropné trhy samozřejmě fungují, jak by měly. Pokud za ně však mohou spekulace, musí politici zasáhnout a přitáhnout otěže chování, které zatěžuje globální ekonomiku obrovskými a zbytečnými náklady. A postavíme-li vedle sebe důkazy, pak vše ukazuje na to, že příčinou jsou skutečně spekulace.

Na spekulace svaluje vinu mnoho aktérů na ropných trzích, avšak většina ekonomů obhajuje fungování těchto trhů a poukazuje na základní ekonomické ukazatele. Ekonomové přitom argumentují mimo jiné tím, že za vyšší ceny může slabý dolar. Protože se ropa oceňuje v dolarech, je díky slabému dolaru levnější pro spotřebitele v jiných zemích, což zvyšuje globální poptávku.

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