油价中的投机者

华盛顿特区- 直到几个星期之前,在油价飙升的时候,人们还在激励争论在推升油价中经济基本面和投机的相对作用。虽然油价现在已经从其最高点回落,但是,这样的争论不应该被忘记,因为它具有政府官员可能会不负责任地忽略的深刻的政策含义。

当然,如果高油价是由于经济基本面引起的,石油市场就会按照它自身的方式运行。但是,如果高油价是由于投机引起的,那么,政策制定者就必须行动起来制止给全球经济施加了巨大且不必要的成本的行为,并且,当面对证据的时候,它也会指出投机是罪魁祸首。

尽管许多石油市场参与者都谴责市场里的投机,然而,大部分经济学家都为石油市场的表现辩护并指出经济基本面才是造成问题的原因。经济学家使用的一个论点是高油价是因为美元的疲软。因为石油是用美元定价的,疲软的美元使石油对其他国家的消费者来说便宜了,从而增加了全球对石油的需求。

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