西班牙也在崛起

马德里—7月将被写入西班牙历史。它以极高的高度开端——西班牙队在2012年欧洲足球锦标赛中问鼎。但所有迹象表明,7月份会在质疑和悲观中结束。月初万众欢呼、汽车和窗台中伸出的西班牙国旗的景象已经让位给了高举反对政府紧缩政策标语的示威群众。每四个西班牙人中就有一个找不到工作,西班牙主权债务评级只比垃圾债券略高——西班牙正在悬崖边缘苦苦挣扎。

但是,很少有分析能透过当前数字表象评估西班牙的优势和劣势。如今,观察家们总是忘记,根据世界银行的标准,西班牙在20世纪80年代初才摆脱发展中国家的地位。事实上,西班牙和新加坡、爱尔兰一起,代表了20世纪最后25年中最灿烂的经济成功。除了人均GDP令人瞩目的大跳跃(从1980年的7284美元升至2010年的30000多美元),西班牙还在卡洛斯国王的英明领导下成功实现了民主转型并加入了欧盟。

这样的奇迹免不了会包含重大不对称性和政治协议,直到今天仍困扰着西班牙,尽管它们在后弗朗哥时代的转型(西班牙人非常担忧祖国会回到内战时期的大分裂状态)中起到了基础性作用。此外,西班牙的成功与欧元区的宽松信用政策不无关系,它们都是金融泡沫的产物,泡沫破裂后,结构性问题便浮出了水面。如今,西班牙需要它的人民同心协力,而同心协力的基础,就在过去30年成就所带来的信心。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/xgpFOYM/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.