西班牙也在崛起

马德里—7月将被写入西班牙历史。它以极高的高度开端——西班牙队在2012年欧洲足球锦标赛中问鼎。但所有迹象表明,7月份会在质疑和悲观中结束。月初万众欢呼、汽车和窗台中伸出的西班牙国旗的景象已经让位给了高举反对政府紧缩政策标语的示威群众。每四个西班牙人中就有一个找不到工作,西班牙主权债务评级只比垃圾债券略高——西班牙正在悬崖边缘苦苦挣扎。

但是,很少有分析能透过当前数字表象评估西班牙的优势和劣势。如今,观察家们总是忘记,根据世界银行的标准,西班牙在20世纪80年代初才摆脱发展中国家的地位。事实上,西班牙和新加坡、爱尔兰一起,代表了20世纪最后25年中最灿烂的经济成功。除了人均GDP令人瞩目的大跳跃(从1980年的7284美元升至2010年的30000多美元),西班牙还在卡洛斯国王的英明领导下成功实现了民主转型并加入了欧盟。

这样的奇迹免不了会包含重大不对称性和政治协议,直到今天仍困扰着西班牙,尽管它们在后弗朗哥时代的转型(西班牙人非常担忧祖国会回到内战时期的大分裂状态)中起到了基础性作用。此外,西班牙的成功与欧元区的宽松信用政策不无关系,它们都是金融泡沫的产物,泡沫破裂后,结构性问题便浮出了水面。如今,西班牙需要它的人民同心协力,而同心协力的基础,就在过去30年成就所带来的信心。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/xgpFOYM/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now