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Um Ano de Incumprimentos Soberanos?

MIAMI – Quando falamos de dívida soberana, o termo “incumprimento” é frequentemente mal-interpretado. Quase nunca acarreta o repúdio completo e permanente dos montantes totais em dívida. Com efeito, até algumas obrigações Russas da era Czarista foram eventualmente reembolsadas (mesmo que apenas parcialmente) após a revolução de 1917. Em vez disso, o não-pagamento (um “incumprimento”, de acordo com as agências de notação de crédito, quando envolve credores privados) leva normalmente a conversações sobre reestruturação de dívida, que podem envolver extensões de prazo, cortes no pagamento de cupões, prazos de carência, ou reduções do valor facial (as desvalorizações também conhecidas por “haircuts”).

Se nos guiarmos pela história, deverão ocorrer frequentemente conversações desse tipo em 2016.

Como tantas outras características da economia global, a acumulação de dívida e o incumprimento tendem a ocorrer em ciclos. Desde 1800, a economia global suportou vários desses ciclos, com a proporção de nações independentes submetidas a reestruturações em qualquer ano a oscilar entre zero e 50% (ver figura). Embora não sejam incomuns períodos de calma de uma e duas décadas sem incumprimentos, cada calmaria tem sempre sido seguida por uma nova onda de incumprimentos.

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