Tahun yang Penuh dengan Gagal Bayar Nasional?

MIAMI – Terkait dengan utang negara, istilah “gagal bayar” (default) banyak disalahartikan. Pada umumnya peristiwa gagal bayar ini tidak penuh atau tetap; bahkan beberapa obligasi di era kekaisaran Rusia berhasil dibayar (walaupun hanya sebagian) setelah revolusi tahun 1917. Kenyataannya, kegagalan pembayaran (non-payment) – suatu “gagal bayar” (default), menurut agen-agen pemeringkat kredit, terkait dengan kreditor swasta – biasanya diikuti dengan pembicaraan mengenai restrukturisasi utang, yang dapat berarti perpanjangan jatuh tempo, potongan pembayaran kupon, tenggang waktu, atau pemotongan nilai nominal (biasa dikenal sebagai “haircuts”).

Jika kita dapat belajar dari sejarah, pembicaraan sejenis akan banyak dilakukan di tahun 2016.

Seperti banyak ciri lain dari ekonomi global, akumulasi utang dan gagal bayar biasanya memiliki siklus. Sejak tahun 1800, ekonomi global telah mengalami beberapa siklus sejenis, di mana beberapa negara-negara independen mengalami restrukturisasi setiap tahunnya yang berkisar antara nol dan 50% (lihat gambar). Namun satu- dan dua dekade tanpa adanya gagal bayar juga biasa ditemui, biasanya diikuti dengan gelombang gagal bayar baru.

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