Rok platebních neschopností suverénů?

MIAMI – Když přijde řeč na suverénní dluh, často je špatně chápán pojem „platební neschopnost“ (default). Téměř nikdy neznamená úplné a stálé zavržení celého objemu dluhu; ostatně splaceny (byť jen zčásti) byly nakonec i dluhopisy z dob carského Ruska po revoluci roku 1917. Nesplácení – podle agentur provádějících úvěrový rating „platební neschopnost,“ dotkne-li se soukromých věřitelů – obvykle vyvolává rozpravu o restrukturalizaci dluhu, která může sestávat z odkladů splatnosti, seškrtání kuponových plateb, odkladných lhůt či snížení nominálních hodnot (takzvané „sestřihy“).

Jsou-li nám vodítkem dějiny, takové rozpravy mohou být v roce 2016 velice časté.

Hromadění dluhu a platební neschopnosti se, podobně jako tolik jiných rysů globální ekonomiky, objevují obvykle v cyklech. Od roku 1800 globální ekonomika prošla několika takovými cykly, přičemž podíl nezávislých zemí podstupujících restrukturalizaci během daného roku kolísá mezi nulou a 50 % (viz obrázek). Nejsou sice neobvyklá období klidu trvající jednu až dvě dekády, ale po každé pokojné periodě následuje nová vlna platebních neschopností.

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