Coins

主权违约之年?

迈阿密—说到主权债务,“违约”一词常常被误解。几乎从未发生过完全、永久地赖掉所有存量债务的违约;事实上,就连帝俄时期的债券,也有一些在1917年革命后最终得到了偿付(哪怕是部分偿付)。但是,不偿付——当牵涉到私人债权人时,即评级机构所谓的“违约”——常常会刺激关于债务重组的讨论,债务重组可能包括延期、减少息票支付或削减面值(所谓的“剃头”)。

如果以历史作为指引,这样的讨论可能会在2016年大量发生。

与全球经济的诸多其他特征一样,债务累积和违约总是以周期形式出现。自1800年以来,全球经济已经经历了多次这样的周期,在任意一年,独立国家经历重组的比例在零和50%之间波动(见图)。一二十年没有违约的情况并不少见,但每一次这样的宁静期之后无一例外都爆发了新的违约潮。

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