La resiliencia del Sur

RÍO DE JANEIRO – La resiliencia demostrada por América Latina después de la crisis financiera de 2008 es digna de destacar, especialmente si se la compara con el desempeño de la región en los ochenta y los noventa. Pero ahora que la economía mundial se enfrenta otra vez a la incertidumbre, la región debe encontrar nuevas estrategias para reducir los efectos que puedan derivarse de la volatilidad de los mercados financieros y de un estancamiento prolongado en las economías más ricas del mundo.

Si bien el crecimiento de América Latina corresponde a tendencias internacionales, no sería raro que en 2012 las economías de la región vuelvan a superar el desempeño de los países industriales. Aunque la contracción del comercio internacional y la reducción de los flujos financieros probablemente causarán cierta desaceleración del crecimiento, es de suponer que la tasa anual se mantendrá cerca del 4% promedio alcanzado por la región entre 2000 y 2008.

La abundancia de liquidez en los mercados internacionales y la persistencia de una alta demanda por parte de China y la India pueden evitar que los precios de los commodities (especialmente los de los productos agrícolas) caigan tanto como durante la crisis de 2008 y 2009. Las ganancias en términos comerciales han sido fundamentales para el crecimiento de la región, dados los bajos índices de ahorro interno en América Latina, porque alientan las inversiones sin provocar un gran deterioro del balance de cuenta corriente.

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