La résilience du Sud

RIO DE JANEIRO – L’Amérique latine a fait montre d’une résilience remarquable devant la crise financière de 2008, surtout par rapport à la performance de la région dans les années 80 et 90. Cependant, l’économie mondiale entrant dans une zone d’incertitude, la région doit repérer de nouvelles stratégies pour réduire les impacts potentiels de l’instabilité des marchés financiers et d’une stagnation prolongée des économies les plus riches du monde.

Même si la croissance de l’Amérique latine suit la conjoncture mondiale, il est fort probable qu’en 2012, les économies de la région présenteront encore de meilleurs résultats que les pays industriels. La contraction du commerce mondial et le tarissement des flux financiers risquent de ralentir quelque peu la croissance, mais la cadence annuelle devrait rester proche de la moyenne de 4 % que la région a connu entre 2000 et 2008.

Cette prévision s‘appuie sur les liquidités abondantes des marchés internationaux et sur la demande toujours élevée de la Chine et de l’Inde qui empêchera vraisemblablement les prix des produits de base, particulièrement les produits agricoles, de chuter autant que pendant la crise de 2008-2009. Les gains provenant des termes d’échange favorables ont été essentiels à la croissance de l’Amérique latine, car ils favorisent l’investissement sans avoir des répercussions négatives importantes sur les balances commerciales.

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