A worker pushes a trolley as he walks between goods stored inside an Amazon.co.uk fulfillment centre  CHRIS J RATCLIFFE/AFP/Getty Images

化解生产率谜题

发自旧金山——多年以来,经济学的一大难题就是找出美国及其他发达经济体生产率下降的原因。对此经济学家提出了各种各样的解释,有人认定测量标准有误,有人归咎于“长期停滞”,还有人质疑最近的技术创新是否对生产力有促进作用。

但谜题的解决方案似乎在于理解经济中的各类互动作用,而不只是找出一个罪魁祸首。在这一点上,我们或许可以找到生产率增长放缓的最终原因。

回望2008金融危机爆发以来这十年——也是许多发达经济体生产率增长急剧恶化的时期——我们发现了三个突出特点:资本密集度增长跌至历史性低,数字化,以及需求复苏乏力。这些特征合起来解释了为何年均生产率增长率会下跌80%,在2010~2014年平均只有0.5%,而10年前这个数字还有2.4%。

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