British pound Max Mumby/Indigo

O Brexit e as Vossas Libras

BERKELEY – Os primeiros resultados do Brexit já apareceram, e contrariamente ao que alguns têm afirmado, não são bons. Em Julho, a seguir ao referendo, a confiança dos consumidores caiu à taxa mais rápida desde 1990. Os resultados dos inquéritos à indústria transformadora e à construção caíram acentuadamente. Embora os dados de Agosto tenham sido melhores, é demasiado cedo para dizer se essa melhoria foi apenas um “pulo de um gato morto”.

Neste mundo distorcido do pós-referendo, a única boa notícia é a queda da libra no mercado cambial. Uma taxa de câmbio mais baixa tornará as exportações Britânicas mais competitivas. Confrontados com preços de importações mais elevados, os consumidores transferirão os seus gastos para os bens nacionais. Isto também impulsionará a economia Britânica.

A questão reside em saber quão grande será esse impulso. Os cépticos advertem que a Grã-Bretanha depende fortemente das exportações de serviços financeiros, que não são especialmente sensíveis ao preço, e que a margem para crescimento das exportações de mercadorias está limitada pela reduzida procura global.

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