British pound Max Mumby/Indigo

Le Brexit et la livre

BERKELEY – Les premières conséquences du Brexit sont là, et contrairement à ce que proclament certains, elles ne sont pas de bon augure. En juillet, immédiatement après le référendum, la confiance des consommateurs britannique s'est écroulée - du jamais vu depuis 1990. Les enquêtes mensuelles sur les industries manufacturières et la construction ont indiqué une forte baisse en juillet, suivie il est vrai d'un redressement en août ; mais il est encore trop tôt pour dire s'il va se confirmer.

Dans le monde sens dessus dessous de l'après-référendum, la baisse de la livre sur le marché des changes est une bonne nouvelle. Elle va améliorer la compétitivité des produits britanniques à l'exportation. Confrontés à une hausse du prix des produits importés, les consommateurs vont se rabattre sur les produits nationaux, ce qui contribuera à relancer l'économie britannique.

Mais quelle va être l'ampleur de cette relance ? L'économie britannique repose essentiellement sur l'exportation des services financiers qui ne sont pas particulièrement sensibles aux variations de prix, et le potentiel de croissance des exportations de biens est limité par la faiblesse de la demande mondiale.

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