Economías pequeñas, problemas grandes e interdependencia global

WASHINGTON, DC – El PIB de Grecia de alrededor de 300 mil millones de dólares, representa aproximadamente el 0.5% de la producción mundial. Su deuda pública de 470 mil millones de dólares es muy grande respecto del tamaño de la economía griega, sin embargo, es menor al 1% de la deuda mundial –y menos de la mitad la tienen los bancos privados (principalmente griegos). Barclays Capital estima que solamente unos cuantos bancos extranjeros de importancia global tienen cerca del 10% de su capital de nivel 1 en bonos del gobierno griego, y la mayoría tienen mucho menos.

Entonces, al menos en papel, Grecia no debería ser una economía de importancia sistémica. Con todo, hay varias razones por las que la crisis griega está teniendo un efecto de contagio sustancial. Además, Grecia no es la única en este sentido.

Primero, en el ejemplo griego, existe el temor de contagiar a otras economías europeas en dificultades, como Portugal e Irlanda, o incluso España e Italia. También hay inversiones  sustanciales de fondos del mercado monetario estadounidense en instrumentos emitidos por algunos de los bancos expuestos.

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