Маленькие экономики, большие проблемы и глобальная взаимозависимость.

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ. ВВП Греции, размером около 300 миллиардов долларов США, составляет примерно 0,5% мирового совокупного продукта. Ее государственный долг, равный примерно 470 миллиардам долларов США, является очень большим, если его сравнивать с размерами греческой экономики, но на самом деле равен всего 1% глобального долга ‑ причем только менее половины этого долга принадлежит частным банкам (в основном греческим). По оценкам Barclays Capital, только несколько иностранных банков, имеющих мировое значение, держат у себя порядка 10% своих капиталов первой категории ценности в греческих правительственных облигациях, а большинство банков держат значительно меньше.

Таким образом, по крайней мере на бумаге, греческая экономика не должна представлять собой системной важности. Однако имеется несколько причин, по которым греческий кризис имеет существенный «эффект распространения». Более того, Греция не одинока в этом плане.

Во-первых, в случае Греции существует страх заражения других кризисных европейских экономик, таких как Португалия и Ирландия или даже Испания и Италия. Также имеются значительные инвестиции работающих на монетарных рынках американских фондов в финансовые инструменты, выпущенные некоторыми банками, попавшими под воздействие кризиса.

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