Kleine Volkswirtschaften, große Probleme und globale Verflechtung

WASHINGTON – Griechenlands Bruttoinlandsprodukt stellt mit seinen ca. 300 Milliarden US-Dollar ungefähr 0,5 Prozent der Weltproduktion dar. Die Staatsverschuldung in Höhe von 470 Milliarden US-Dollar ist relativ groß im Verhältnis zur Größe der griechischen Wirtschaft, beträgt aber weniger als ein Prozent der globalen Verschuldung –  weniger als die Hälfte davon wird von privaten (hauptsächlich griechischen) Banken gehalten. Barclays Capital schätzt, dass nur einige global relevante ausländische Banken etwa zehn Prozent ihres Kernkapitals in griechischen Staatsanleihen halten, ein Großteil besitzt wesentlich weniger.

Auf dem Papier also dürfte Griechenland keine systemrelevante Wirtschaft sein. Aber es gibt verschiedene Gründe, warum die Griechenlandkrise erhebliche Nebenwirkungen haben könnte. Zudem ist Griechenland kein Einzelfall.

Zunächst einmal gibt es im Falle Griechenlands die Angst davor, dass sich andere wirtschaftlich kränkelnde europäische Länder wie Portugal und Irland oder sogar Spanien oder Italien anstecken. Es gibt zudem substanzielle Investitionen amerikanischer Geldmarktfonds in Anlageinstrumente, die von einigen der gefährdeten Banken herausgegeben wurden.

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