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La amenaza proteccionista

WASHINGTON, DC – Los pronósticos de crecimiento del comercio internacional en 2016 y 2017 han vuelto a rebajarse. La Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) ahora prevé que el crecimiento de este año será el más lento desde la recesión global posterior a 2008. ¿Qué está sucediendo?

No es sólo resultado de una pobre recuperación económica global: en general, el comercio siempre creció más que el PIB; en los años previos a la crisis financiera global de 2008, el incremento promedio superó dos veces al de la producción. Pero la relación entre crecimiento del comercio y crecimiento del PIB viene cayendo desde 2012, tendencia que culminará este año, cuando por primera vez en quince años lo primero será inferior a lo segundo.

Este retroceso se debe en parte a factores estructurales, entre ellos el amesetamiento de la expansión de las cadenas de valor globales y que el proceso de transformación estructural de China y otras naciones en la vanguardia del crecimiento llegó a un punto de inflexión. Otro motivo probable de presión a la baja sobre los flujos de comercio es la creciente participación del sector servicios en el PIB de los países, dado que la propensión al comercio internacional de los servicios es inferior respecto de los bienes fabriles.

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