Ärger im Schwellenlandparadies

NEW YORK – Während der letzten paar Jahre wurden die BRICS (Brasilien, Russland, Indien, China und Südafrika) übermäßig in den Himmel gelobt. Es wurde argumentiert, dass diese Länder mit ihrer großen Bevölkerung und ihrem hohen Wachstum bald zu den größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt zählen würden – mit China bis 2020 weltweit an der Spitze. Aber die BRICS erlitten kürzlich ebenso wie viele andere sich noch entwickelnde Volkswirtschaften eine starke wirtschaftliche Verlangsamung. Sind die Flitterwochen also vorbei?

Im letzten Jahr wuchs das BIP von Brasilien um nur 1% und wird dieses Jahr vielleicht nicht mehr als 2-3% wachsen. Auch die russische Wirtschaft wächst in diesem Jahr wahrscheinlich nur um 2-3%, obwohl die Ölpreise bei etwa 100 USD pro Barrel liegen. Indien hat ein paar Jahre starken Wachstums hinter sich (11,2% 2010 und 7,7% 2011), fiel aber 2012 auf 4% zurück. Die chinesische Wirtschaft wuchs in den letzten drei Jahrzehnten um 10% pro Jahr, verlangsamte sich aber letztes Jahr auf 7,8% und steht vor der Gefahr einer harten Landung. Und Südafrika wuchs im letzten Jahr nur 2,5%, und wird dieses Jahr vielleicht nur 2% zulegen.

In vielen anderen Schwellenländern wie der Türkei, Argentinien, Polen, Ungarn und vielen mittel- und osteuropäischen Staaten geht das Wachstum ähnlich zurück. Was also ist das Problem der BRICS und anderer Schwellenmärkte?

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