Turbulences dans les pays émergents

NEW-YORK – Depuis quelques années on chante les louanges des BRICS (le Brésil, la Russie, l'Inde, la Chine et l'Afrique du Sud). Ces pays peuplés et en croissance rapide deviendraient bientôt les premières économies de la planète - la toute première en ce qui concerne la Chine, et ce dès 2020. Mais les BRICS, comme beaucoup d'autres pays émergents, ont subi récemment un ralentissement économique brutal. Est-ce la fin d'un miracle ?

Le taux de croissance du PIB brésilien a été de seulement 1% l'année dernière et il ne devrait pas dépasser 2% cette année, avec un taux de croissance potentiel de l'ordre de 3% - bien que le prix du baril de pétrole soit d'environ 100 dollars. L'Inde a connu deux années de forte croissance en 2010 et 2011 (respectivement 11,2% et 7,7%), mais elle est tombée à 4% en 2012. La croissance de l'économie chinoise a été de 10% lors des trois dernières décennies, mais elle a chuté à 7,8% l'année dernière et l'atterrissage pourrait être difficile. Quant à l'Afrique du Sud, sa croissance a été de 2,5% l'année dernière et elle ne devrait pas dépasser 2% cette année.

Bien d'autres pays émergents qui ont connu une croissance rapide (la Turquie, l'Argentine, la Pologne, la Hongrie et beaucoup de pays d'Europe centrale et d'Europe de l'Est) subissent eux aussi un ralentissement. Pourquoi cette situation ?

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