Trable v ráji rozvíjejících se trhů

NEW YORK – V posledních několika letech byla skupina BRICS (Brazílie, Rusko, Indie, Čína a Jižní Afrika) hojně zahrnována bombastem. Tvrdí se, že tyto země, charakteristické početnými populacemi a svižným růstem, se brzy propracují mezi největší ekonomiky světa – ostatně Čína bude ze všech největší už v roce 2020. V poslední době ale BRICS, jakož i mnohé další ekonomiky rozvíjejících se trhů, zažívají strmý hospodářský pokles. Je tedy počáteční idylka pryč?

Brazilský HDP se loni zvýšil o pouhé procento a letos zřejmě nenaroste o víc než 2 %, přičemž tamní potenciální růst stěží převyšuje 3 %. Ruská ekonomika letos patrně poroste sotva o 2 % a její potenciální růst dosahuje asi 3 %, přestože ceny ropy se pohybují kolem 100 dolarů za barel. Indie nedávno zažila několik let silného růstu (11,2 % roku 2010 a 7,7 % roku 2011), ale v roce 2012 zpomalila na 4 %. Čínské hospodářství rostlo v posledních třech desetiletích o 10 % za rok, ale loni zpomalilo na 7,8 % a hrozí mu tvrdé přistání. Konečně Jižní Afrika rostla loni o pouhá 2,5 % a letos zřejmě poroste nanejvýš 2% tempem.

Podobným zpomalením procházejí mnohé další dříve rychle rostoucí ekonomiky rozvíjejících se trhů, například Turecko, Argentina, Polsko, Maďarsko a řada zemí ve střední a východní Evropě. Co tedy BRICS a další rozvíjející se trhy sužuje?

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