新兴市场天堂的麻烦

纽约—在过去几年中,人们寄厚望于金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)。这些国家人口多、增长快,因此将很快跻身于世界最大经济体的行列,而中国最早可能在2020年成为世界第一大经济体。但金砖国家和许多其他新兴市场经济体一样,最近经历了大规模经济减速。蜜月期就这样结束了吗?

巴西GDP去年只增长了1%,今年可能也不会超过2%,而其潜在增长率也不过3%上下。俄罗斯经济今年增长率能达到2%便已勉强,潜在增长率也在3%左右,尽管石油价格徘徊在每桶100美元。印度近两年增长强劲(2010年11.2%,2011年7.7%),但2012年放缓至4%。中国经济在过去三十年中每年都能增长10%,但去年降至7.8%,并有硬着陆之患。南非去年只增长了2.5%,今年也不会超过2%。

许多其他先前快速增长的新兴经济体——比如土耳其、阿根廷、波兰、匈牙利和许多中欧和东欧国家——也在经历类似的减速。是什么羁绊了金砖国家和其他新兴市场?

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