متاعب في فردوس الأسواق الناشئة

نيويورك ــ خلال السنوات القليلة الماضية، أثير قدر كبير من الضجيج حول مجموعة البريكس (البرازيل وروسيا والهند والصين وجنوب أفريقيا). فبفضل كتلتها السكانية الضخمة ونموها السريع سوف تصبح هذه البلدان قريبا، كما تذهب الحجة، من أكبر الاقتصادات على مستوى العالم ــ وفي حالة الصين، الأكبر على الإطلاق بحلول عام 2020. ولكن دول مجموعة البريكس ــ وكذا العديد من اقتصادات السوق الناشئة الأخرى ــ كانت تعاني مؤخراً من تباطؤ اقتصادي حاد. وهذا يعني أن شهر العسل انتهى؟

فلم يتجاوز نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في البرازيل في العام الماضي 1%، وقد لا يتجاوز 2% هذا العام، حيث لا يزيد نموها المحتمل عن 3% إلا بالكاد. وقد ينمو اقتصاد روسيا بنسبة 2% بالكاد هذا العام، حيث يدور نموها المحتمل أيضاً حول 3%، برغم أن أسعار النفط تبلغ نحو 100 دولار للبرميل. وقد شهدت الهند عامين من النمو القوي مؤخرا (11.2% في عام 2010، و7.7% في عام 2011) ولكن النمو تباطأ إلى 4% في عام 2012. كما سجل اقتصاد الصين نمواً بلغ في المتوسط 10% سنوياً طيلة العقود الثلاثة الماضية، ولكنه تباطأ إلى 7.8% في العام الماضي وبات مهدداً بالهبوط الحاد الآن. وسجلت جنوب أفريقيا نمواً بلغ 2.5% فقط العام الماضي، وقد لا يتجاوز النمو 2% هذا العام.

والعديد من اقتصادات السوق الناشئة السريعة النمو سابقا ــ على سبيل المثال، تركيا والأرجنتين وبولندا والمجر والعديد من بلدان وسط وشرق أوروبا ــ تعاني من تباطؤ مماثل. ما الذي أصاب بلدان مجموعة البريكس وغيرها من الأسواق الناشئة إذن؟

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