Cinco razones del crecimiento lento

MILÁN – Desde la crisis financiera global de 2008, se repite un fenómeno notable: gobiernos, bancos centrales e instituciones financieras internacionales han debido recortar una y otra vez sus pronósticos de crecimiento. Con muy pocas excepciones, ocurrió tanto con las proyecciones mundiales como con las nacionales.

Este fenómeno ha causado daños reales, porque las previsiones excesivamente optimistas demoran las medidas necesarias para impulsar el crecimiento y, de tal modo, impiden la plena recuperación económica. Es necesario que los pronosticadores comprendan cuál fue el error. Por suerte, al prolongarse la experiencia post-crisis algunas de las piezas faltantes del rompecabezas se han vuelto más visibles. Yo he identificado cinco.

La primera: no se utilizó a pleno la capacidad de intervención fiscal (al menos, en las economías desarrolladas). Como señala el ex subsecretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, Frank Newman, en un libro reciente titulado Freedom from National Debt [Liberarse de la deuda nacional], para determinar la capacidad de intervención fiscal de un país es mejor examinar su estado de balance general que usar el método tradicional de comparar su deuda (un pasivo) con su PIB (un flujo).

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