Cinque ragioni dietro la crescita lenta

MILANO – Dalla crisi finanziaria globale del 2008 è emerso un trend assai particolare: governi, banche centrali e istituzioni finanziarie internazionali devono puntualmente rivedere le loro previsioni di crescita al ribasso. Con pochissime eccezioni, finora ciò è valso tanto per le proiezioni che riguardano l'economia globale quanto per quelle relative ai singoli paesi.

Questo trend ha causato danni concreti, poiché delle previsioni troppo ottimistiche ritardano l'adozione delle misure necessarie per rilanciare la crescita e, di conseguenza, impediscono la piena ripresa economica. I previsori devono ora fare i conti con ciò che è andato storto; per fortuna, poiché l'esperienza post crisi si sta protraendo, alcuni dei tasselli mancanti iniziano a trovare una collocazione. Io ne ho individuati cinque.

Per prima cosa, la capacità d'intervento fiscale, almeno tra le economie sviluppate, è stata sottoutilizzata. Come sostiene l'ex vice segretario del Tesoro americano Frank Newman nel suo recente libro Freedom from National Debt ('libertà dal debito nazionale'), la capacità d'intervento fiscale di un paese si valuta meglio esaminandone il bilancio complessivo che confrontando, come si fa tradizionalmente, il suo debito (una passività) con il suo Pil (un flusso).

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