慢增长的五个原因

米兰—2008年全球金融危机以来出现了一个值得关注的模式:政府、央行和国际金融机构不断地被迫向下修正增长预期。除了极少数例外,全球经济和个体国家预测都出现了这一现象。

这个模式造成了真正的伤害,因为过于乐观的预期推迟了提振增长所需的措施,从而阻止了经济的全面复苏。预测者需要找到真正的问题;幸运的是,随着后危机时代经验增长,一些错过的因素正在获得明确关注。我在这里提出五点。

首先,财政干预能力——至少在发达经济体——没有得到充分利用。前美国财政部副部长纽曼(Frank Newman)在其新著《摆脱国民债务》(Freedom from National Debt)中指出,一国的财政干预能力更应该通过考察总资产负债表而不是比较债务(负债)和GDP(流量)的传统方法来评估。

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