Slouching Toward Gaza

Entre les roquettes Qassam qui s’abattent tous les jours sur les villes israéliennes depuis la bande de Gaza, et la surenchère qui s’est emparée des responsables israéliens à qui proposera la riposte la plus musclée, Israël est aujourd’hui enfermé dans un dilemme: envahir ou ne pas envahir. Chacune de ces deux issues contient son lot de contradictions, et toutes deux sont des casse-tête apparemment insolubles.

En tant que gouvernement, le Hamas doit être jugé sur son aptitude à en assurer le bon fonctionnement et à garantir la sécurité à la population de Gaza, mais en tant que mouvement, il lui est impossible de renier son indéfectible promesse de se battre jusqu’à la mort contre l’occupant israélien. Après tout, ce n’est pas pour faire la paix avec Israël ou pour améliorer ses relations avec les Etats-Unis que le Hamas a été élu. S’il a montré quelques signes sporadiques d’une évolution vers plus de réalisme politique, le Hamas ne s’est pas fixé comme priorité de trahir jusqu’à sa raison d’être, en souscrivant au processus de paix d’Annapolis mené par les Etats-Unis.

Le Hamas ne cherche pas, par ses offensives, à entraîner Israël dans une invasion coûteuse qui pourrait lui coûter son régime. Ses manœuvres visent plutôt à rééquilibrer la pression, en maintenant un conflit de faible intensité, même en cas d’accord sur une nouvelle suspension des hostilités.

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