巴尔干半岛梦游

萨拉热窝-几乎就在13年前,美国领导人用《代顿和平协定》结束了波斯尼亚三年半的战争。现在,这个国家处在真正的崩溃危险之中。像在1995年那样,如果我们不打算稀里糊涂地陷入另一场危机,我们就需要决断和大西洋两岸的团结。

波斯尼亚的塞尔维亚族总理米洛拉德·多迪克(Milorad Dodik)曾经因为反对民族主义的塞尔维亚民主党,而成为国际社会的宠儿(特别是美国的宠儿),现在,他在没有背负该党种族灭绝历史包袱污名的情况下,已经采纳了该党的主张。多迪克的长期政策似乎很清楚:在机会出现的时候,将其塞尔维亚实体波黑塞族共和国(Republika Srpska)置于可以脱离波斯尼亚的位置。多迪克充分利用了波斯尼亚宪法结构的弱点,国际社会的厌倦和欧盟坚持其限制条件的无能,已经在两年内逆转了过去13年里在波斯尼亚取得的许多真正的进步,严重地削弱了波斯尼亚国家的机构,并且几乎阻止了该国向一个有效的(以及与欧盟相容的)国家的进程。

俄罗斯的鼓励和石油美元助长了多迪克的行为。此外,他的竞争对手,波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那主席团轮值主席哈里斯·西拉伊季奇(Haris Silajdzic),强调取消组成波斯尼亚的两个实体,建立一个非联邦国家的必要性。多迪克表示会尊重《代顿和平协定》,而西拉伊季奇则希望修改该协定,但是两个人都违反了《代顿和平协定》的基本原则:存在在一个国家里的联邦系统。这种有害的相互作用是引起当前波斯尼亚危机的中心问题。

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