Die Tür zur Euromitgliedschaft wird zugeschlagen

LONDON: Vergangene Woche kamen in Frankfurt Notenbanker aus aller Welt zusammen, um sich im Glanze des 10-jährigen Eurojubiläums zu sonnen. Für jene aus den Kandidatenländern freilich war die Veranstaltung eine kalte Dusche. Just zu dem Zeitpunkt, wo die globale Finanzkrise die Euromitgliedschaft drängender und notwendiger denn je erscheinen lässt, haben die aktuellen Euroländer begonnen, Vorschläge in Umlauf zu bringen, die die Schwelle für den Eurobeitritt anheben würden.

Gemäß dem in Frankfurt offen diskutierten Vorschlag würde ergänzend zu den seit Einführung des Euro bestehenden makroökonomischen Maastrichtkriterien als zusätzliches Kriterium für den Beitritt zum Euroraum die Qualität des Bankensystems eines Landes herangezogen. Auch wenn man die Scheinheiligkeit außen vor lässt, mit der westliche Regierungen über dieses Thema schwadronieren, während sie nach massivem regulatorischen Versagen zugleich dabei sind, ihre Banken zu retten, ist der Vorschlag mit ernsten Mängeln behaftet.

Um seine Absurdität in Gänze zu würdigen, lassen Sie uns das außergewöhnlich erfolgreiche osteuropäische Wachstumsmodell der vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnte betrachten. Das von Westeuropa verfochtene und von Osteuropa übernommene Modell beruht auf der Vorstellung, dass Kapital von kapitalreichen in kapitalarme Länder fließen sollte. Die Ökonomen müssen bis in die Vereinigten Staaten des 19. Jahrhunderts zurückgehen, um ein ähnliches Musterbeispiel erfolgreichen wirtschaftlichen Wachstums zu finden, bei dem große Leistungsbilanzdefizite überwiegend durch ausländische Direktinvestitionen finanziert wurden. Diese Finanzströme gingen mit einer nie da gewesenen Finanzintegration einher; die meisten osteuropäischen Banken werden heute von westlichen Muttergesellschaften beherrscht.

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