关上欧元的大门

伦敦-上个星期,来自世界各地的中央银行家齐聚法兰克福,沐浴欧元第一个十年的光辉。但是,对那些来自欧元区候选国的人来说,这次活动给他们当头泼了冷水。正像全球金融危机使成为欧元区成员国比以前任何时候都要紧迫和必要一样,现有的欧元成员国已经开始提出提高加入欧元区的标准的提议了。

在法兰克福公开讨论的这个提议中,除了从欧元启动以来就有的宏观经济马斯特里赫特标准之外,一个国家银行系统的质量也会被用来作为成为欧元区成员国的附加标准。将西方政府在大量的监管失误后正援救其银行的同时,却在这个问题上装模作样的伪善放在一边不提,这个提议本身就是有严重瑕疵的。

为了完全看清这个提议的荒谬之处,可以想想过去20年里极其成功的东欧增长模式。这种得到西欧支持并为东欧所采纳的增长模式,建立在资本应该从资本充裕的国家流向资本缺乏的国家的理念之上。经济学家要回到19世纪的美国,才能找到类似的成功增长的典型例子,这样的增长伴随着主要通过外国直接投资带来的巨额经常账户赤字。资金流动伴随着前所未有的金融一体化,现在西方母银行控制着大部分的东欧银行。

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