La stratégie turque dans le jeu iranien

ISTANBUL – Au lendemain de la visite du ministre iranien des Affaires étrangères Javad Zarif dans les États du Golfe, l’opération de séduction entreprise par la République islamique devrait se poursuivre à l’occasion du déplacement du président Hassan Rouhani en Turquie au début du mois prochain. Contrairement à la plupart des États arabes voisins de l'Iran, la Turquie s’est clairement félicitée de l’accord intérimaire conclu le mois dernier entre l’Iran et les pays du P5+1 (les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies, accompagnés par l’Allemagne) autour du programme nucléaire iranien. D’un autre côté, les dirigeants turcs sont pleinement conscients du risque de voir cet accord bouleverser le fragile équilibre des pouvoirs régnant au Moyen-Orient.

Aux yeux de la Turquie, cet accord nucléaire devrait permettre – sous réserve du succès de sa mise en œuvre, et à condition qu’il soit rendu permanent après six mois – de lever l’une de ses préoccupations majeures en matière de sécurité. Le gouvernement du Premier ministre Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ne souhaite pas avoir à faire face à un Iran nucléaire, craignant l’émergence d’une relation de pouvoir asymétrique entre la Turquie et la République islamique, après plusieurs siècles d’équilibre de cette relation.

Mais l’Iran n’a pas non plus souhaité qu’une intervention armée dirigée par les États-Unis soit lancée en Iran. Le pays a en effet considéré qu’une frappe militaire engendrerait encore davantage de difficultés quant à la stabilité et à la sécurité de la région. C’est la raison pour laquelle les responsables politiques turcs ont toujours défendu une solution diplomatique autour de l’épineuse question iranienne, solution qu’ils sont parvenus à obtenir au travers de l’accord récemment conclu.

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