¿Los bancos de China son los próximos?

WASHINGTON, DC – El reciente episodio de política disfuncional de Estados Unidos y la crisis intermitente de la eurozona deberían, a priori, representar una oportunidad dorada para China. Sin duda, el malestar en Estados Unidos y Europa probablemente afecte las exportaciones chinas; pero, en el largo plazo, China pretende reorientar su economía hacia el consumo doméstico. Ahora que el ala del Tea Party del Partido Republicano de Estados Unidos asusta a los inversores y los hace abandonar el dólar, el interés en el potencial del renminbi chino como moneda de reserva internacional no puede más que aumentar.

Esto ayudará a China a atraer más inversores que buscan diversificar sus carteras. La deuda del gobierno chino se convertirá en un activo de referencia global importante, lo que debería ayudar a su sector privado a atraer financiamiento en términos razonables, mientras que la predominancia de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos a la hora de determinar las condiciones monetarias mundiales supuestamente se reduciría. El cambio, que ya lleva varias décadas, hacia un mundo multipolar para la industria podría en consecuencia derivar en un mundo más multipolar para las monedas, en el que el renminbi pasaría a ser un actor preponderante.  

Sin embargo, a pesar de su historia única y sus ventajas actuales, China esconde una debilidad que es bastante similar a lo que causó tanto problema en Estados Unidos y Europa: los bancos grandes con un incentivo para no ser cuidadosos. Las últimas medidas de China sugieren que si bien ahora puede gozar de algunos años de mayor prominencia, el hecho de que aliente a sus instituciones financieras a volverse globales probablemente conduzca a serios problemas.

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