接下来是中资银行?

华盛顿—最近,美国政坛陷入了瘫痪,而欧元区危机好一阵坏一阵,至少从表面上,这是中国的黄金机会。诚然,美国和欧洲的萎靡可能伤及中国的出口;但是,从产期看,中国希望将其经济导向内需。美国共和党中的茶党正在把投资者吓得逃离美元,于是人民币成为国际储备货币的潜力必然日渐提升。

这将有助于中国吸引更多的寻求投资组合多样化的投资者。中国政府债务将成为重要的全球基准资产,这将有助于其私人部门吸引条件有利的资金,而美联储在决定世界货币条件方面的主导力将受到侵蚀。于是,几十年来的生产多极化有可能日益带来货币多极化,人民币将在其中扮演重要角色。

但是,尽管中国拥有独一无二的历史和现实优势,但中国也有劣势,而正是这一劣势导致美国和欧洲深陷泥淖:大银行有不谨慎行事的激励。中国的最新动作表明,尽管当下它可以享受几年的主宰力增长,但其鼓励金融机构走向全球的做法可能导致严重麻烦。

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