La confrontación decisiva en Bali

BALI – La reunión internacional que se celebrará este mes en Bali creará un marco con el que se intentará impedir la amenaza de desastre del calentamiento planetario/cambio climático. Ahora ya caben pocas dudas de que los gases que producen el efecto de invernadero –como, por ejemplo, el dióxido de carbono– están propiciando cambios importantes en el clima. Tampoco cabe duda de que esos cambios impondrán enormes costos. Lo que debemos peguntarnos no es ya si podemos permitirnos el lujo de hacer algo, sino cómo controlar las emisiones de forma equitativa y eficaz.

El Protocolo de Kyoto fue un logro importante, pero dejó fuera el 75 por ciento de las fuentes de emisiones: los Estados Unidos, el mayor contaminante, se negaron a firmarlo. (Como el nuevo Gobierno de Australia ya ha firmado, ahora los EE.UU. son el único de los países industriales avanzados que se resiste a hacerlo.) No se impusieron prescripciones a los países en desarrollo, pero en un futuro no demasiado lejano sus emisiones representarán la mitad o más del total, y nada se hizo sobre la deforestación, que está contribuyendo casi tanto como los EE.UU. al aumento de la concentración de los gases que provocan el efecto de invernadero.

Los EE.UU y China compiten para ser los mayores contaminadores del mundo; los primeros llevan mucho tiempo ganando la carrera, pero en los próximos años China será acreedora a ese dudoso honor. Ahora bien, Indonesia, con su rápida deforestación, ocupa el tercer puesto.

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