Руки прочь от Сирии?

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ. Беспорядки в Сирии вызвали больше серьезных проблем для западных политиков, нежели любое другое из событий Арабской весны. Насколько сирийское общество является более сложным, чем в других арабских странах, переживающих в настоящее время переходный политический период, настолько и ее внешние проблемы являются более сложными. Поэтому любая попытка решающего военного вмешательства будет не только трудной, но и крайне рискованной.

Одним из осложняющих факторов является ведущая роль Сирии в Ливане, даже после вывода оттуда ее оккупационных сил. Другой сложностью является правление находящихся в меньшинстве алавитов в стране с преобладанием суннитов, что превращает Сирию в форпост шиитского Ирана в суннитском арабском мире. Остальные сирийские меньшинства – не алавитские шииты, православные и католические христиане и друзы – связаны с соседними странами и региональными игроками, создавая повышенный внешний интерес и даже активную поддержку. Турция, Саудовская Аравия и Россия имеют стратегические интересы и фракционные связи с Сирией.

Соединенные Штаты и их союзники по НАТО, разумеется, предпочли бы появление в Сирии демократического, прозападного режима. Но, учитывая сложно устроенное общество страны и ее внешние связи, Запад должен с радостью принять любое стабильное правительство, которое не контролируется нарушающими права человека Россией или Ираном и не находится в состоянии военного конфликта с соседями, в том числе с Израилем.

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