Intervenir ou non en Syrie

WASHINGTON, DC – Plus que tout autre événement du printemps arabe, les troubles en Syrie présentent de grandes difficultés pour les décideurs politiques occidentaux. La Syrie, dont la société est plus complexe que celle des autres pays arabes qui font l’expérience d’une transition politique, a également des relations extérieures plus complexes. Toute tentative d’intervention militaire décisive serait donc non seulement difficile, mais également très risquée.

Le rôle prépondérant de la Syrie au Liban, même après le retrait de ses forces d’occupation, n’est que l’un de ces facteurs. Un autre est que le pouvoir est détenu par une minorité alaouite, dans un pays à majorité sunnite, ce qui en fait un intermédiaire de l’Iran chiite dans le monde arabe sunnite. D’autres groupes minoritaires syriens – les chiites non alaouites, les chrétiens  orthodoxes et catholiques, et les Druzes – sont liés aux pays voisins et aux acteurs régionaux, donnant lieu à des jeux d’intérêt externes intenses, voire à un soutien actif. La Turquie, l’Arabie saoudite et la Russie ont des intérêts stratégiques et des connections avec les diverses factions syriennes.

Les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés de l’Otan préféreraient bien sûr voir émerger en Syrie un régime démocratique, favorable à l’Occident. Mais compte tenu de la complexité de la société syrienne et de ses relations extérieures, les pays occidentaux devraient être prêts à accepter un régime stable qui ne soit pas contrôlé par la Russie ou l’Iran ou engagé dans un conflit avec ses voisins, dont Israël.

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