Ruce pryč od Sýrie?

Oct 8, 2012 Harold Brown

WASHINGTON – Syrská vřava přináší západním tvůrcům politik větší nesnáze než kterákoli z dřívějších událostí Arabského jara. Jednak Sýrii tvoří komplikovanější společnost než ostatní arabské země, jež v současnosti zápasí s politickou proměnou, jednak jsou spletitější i její vnější vztahy. Vzhledem k tomu by jakýkoli pokus o rozhodnou vojenskou intervenci byl nejen těžký, ale i mimořádně riskantní.

Jednou komplikací je vůdčí role Sýrie v Libanonu, i po stažení jejích okupačních sil. Další představuje vláda alavitské menšiny v zemi se sunnitskou většinou, která Sýrii proměňuje v zástupce šíitského Íránu v sunnitsko-arabském světě. Další syrské menšinové skupiny – nealavitští šíité, pravoslavní a katoličtí křesťané a drúzové – mají vazby na sousední země a regionální aktéry, takže zvnějšku přitahují silný zájem, dokonce aktivní podporu. Turecko, Saúdská Arábie i Rusko mají v Sýrii jak strategické zájmy, tak vazby na místní frakce.

Spojené státy a jejich spojenci z NATO by samozřejmě v Sýrii upřednostnili vznik demokratického, západně orientovaného režimu. Vzhledem ke spletitým společenským a externím vazbám země by se ale Západ měl spokojit se stabilní vládou, jíž nebude dominovat Rusko ani Írán a která nebude ve vojenském konfliktu se svými sousedy, včetně Izraele.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

Kir Komrik Oct 27, 2012

Hi,

Thanks for the insights.

"That leaves supporting the rebels, but which ones, and how? Yet another factor militating against intervention is that the distribution of power resulting from the Arab Spring is leaving the US with limited influence and little intelligence. But the US and the West cannot leave the matter entirely to others or confine their efforts to the United Nations, where Russia and China prevent any effective action."

I agree that there is limited intelligence regarding the locations of key figures in the regime. But I think all one needs to know is where they are, and this whole escapade would be over in a single, moonless night. And with a vacuum USG and the UN can declare it a defended zone until the Syrians figure out who is going to fill the gap. Virtually anything they come up with will likely be better than what they have now, imo

We would have no qualms about doing the same thing to Charles Manson or a serial killer if we are intervening in an ongoing crime, which is what this is.

- kk
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Wim Roffel Oct 11, 2012

"Alawite-minority rule in a Sunni-majority country [..] makes Syria a proxy for Shia Iran".
Wrong. The link between Alawite and Shiite is rather weak and secular Syria is quite different from fundamentalist Iran. What unites them is the enmity of Saudi Arabia that aims to turn the whole region fundamentalist Sunni and the enmity of the US - at least partially bought with Saudi lobbying.

"A negotiated end to the current warfare [..] would be a triumph for the cause of hardline dictatorship"
Here the author is essentially saying that he doesn't want a negotiated outcome and goes for a regime change. He forgets to mention the price - at least 100,000 dead Syrians - and forgets that having a compromise between Assad and the Brotherhood would be a major achievement for Syria.

"So far, the US has handled the various forms of political transition in the Arab Spring without severely damaging missteps."
30,000 dead in Libya - probably most by NATO bombs. Many Arabs don't like that. It is the main reason almost no Syrian rebel wants a foreign intervention.
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Ken Presting Oct 11, 2012

Mr. Brown deserves praise for emphasizing the challenges posed by the Syrian conflict. His voice should give caution to those who urge immediate arms buildup or more direct action. However, he seems to have a Defense Department view of the range of actions available in the diplomatic context.

He has completely ignored the role of the Kingdom of Jordan, the political significance of the regional refugee problem, and the important US project already underway to support Jordan with military planners.

We have already seen Turkey step into a role which both active and measured, supporting both FSA forces and the opposition shadow government (such as it is). Jordan has not yet taken that step, but it has followed Turkey's example in humanitarian support for refugees. This is a positive direction. Whatever regime replaces Assad will owe a great deal to Jordan and Turkey. Nothing could be better for regional stability than for those two relationships to replace the Damascus-Tehran axis.

Russia is the greatest disappointment in this crisis. How many readers know that a significant expatriate Russian community lives in Syria? Russia should understand that their most valuable relationship is to the Syrian people, not the Assad regime. This could be a topic of conversation at many levels between our State department and theirs. Russia has much more to gain by regime change in Syria than from the pro-Iranian status quo.

To return to military issues. I have to directly criticize Brown's tired reference to Syria's air defenses. It is empty to compare Syria to Libya; the only relevant comparison is Iraq, whose anti-air capability was decimated in hours by cruise missiles and smart bombs. How long would Assad try to hold out against a cruise missile attack?

The blame for ongoing massacre in Syria rests entirely within the ring-shaped table of the UN Security Council, but only because of the veto system there. If the question of action in Syria were brought before the UN General Assembly, there would be more than adequate political cover for decisive action.
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