不干涉叙利亚?

华盛顿—和此前阿拉伯之春的所有事件相比,叙利亚动乱给西方决策者造成的困难更大。叙利亚的社会复杂程度比其他处于政治转型过程的阿拉伯国家都大,其对外关系亦然。结果,任何决定性的军事干预不但更加困难,而且风险极大。

叙利亚对黎巴嫩的领导作用只是复杂情况之一,即使其占领军已经撤出了黎巴嫩。另一大复杂性叙利亚的少数派阿拉维派统治着占多数的逊尼派,这使得叙利亚成为什叶派伊朗在逊尼派阿拉伯世界中的代理。更加少数的叙利亚宗教团体——非阿拉维派什叶派、东正教、天主教、和德鲁兹派——均和邻国以及地区势力有关联,这使得不少外部势力都在叙利亚拥有利益甚至积极地支持各教派的活动。土耳其、沙特以及俄罗斯都在叙利亚有战略利益和派别关系。

当然,美国及其北约盟国希望叙利亚产生一个民主的西方导向的政权。但是,由于叙利亚错综复杂的社会和外部关系,只要产生非俄罗斯和伊朗主导的稳定新政府,且该政府不与包括以色列在内的邻国产生军事冲突,西方也乐得接受。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/bTRVgZM/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now