不干涉叙利亚?

华盛顿—和此前阿拉伯之春的所有事件相比,叙利亚动乱给西方决策者造成的困难更大。叙利亚的社会复杂程度比其他处于政治转型过程的阿拉伯国家都大,其对外关系亦然。结果,任何决定性的军事干预不但更加困难,而且风险极大。

叙利亚对黎巴嫩的领导作用只是复杂情况之一,即使其占领军已经撤出了黎巴嫩。另一大复杂性叙利亚的少数派阿拉维派统治着占多数的逊尼派,这使得叙利亚成为什叶派伊朗在逊尼派阿拉伯世界中的代理。更加少数的叙利亚宗教团体——非阿拉维派什叶派、东正教、天主教、和德鲁兹派——均和邻国以及地区势力有关联,这使得不少外部势力都在叙利亚拥有利益甚至积极地支持各教派的活动。土耳其、沙特以及俄罗斯都在叙利亚有战略利益和派别关系。

当然,美国及其北约盟国希望叙利亚产生一个民主的西方导向的政权。但是,由于叙利亚错综复杂的社会和外部关系,只要产生非俄罗斯和伊朗主导的稳定新政府,且该政府不与包括以色列在内的邻国产生军事冲突,西方也乐得接受。

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