军队应该立刻回家吗?

上周末,伊拉克向世人宣告:立法委终于成立了临时政府,这个消息着实令人鼓舞,无论对伊拉克、乔治·W·布什和托尼·布莱尔来讲莫不如此。美国和英国政府在国内的日子越来越艰难,迫切需要用实实在在的进展来缓和国内的批评, 公开把撤军问题提上日程。但伊拉克所面临的最艰巨的挑战还在前面。如果布什和布莱尔在真正的战斗打响前就宣布获胜,就会为他们曾经付出巨大代价的事业埋下隐患。

布什苦苦等候了几个礼拜,才等来了这次积极的进展。这使他得以提出在2006年底之前把驻伊美军从原来的133,000人减至100,000人。布莱尔还没来得及从5月上旬工党地方选举落败的打击中清醒过来,也急忙对伊拉克这一振奋人心的消息表示欢迎。在5月22日突然造访巴格达时,布莱尔说他希望伊拉克军队到年底就能承担该国大部分国土的“领土安全”责任。“暴力迫使我们留在这里”,他说。“和平终于允许我们撤出军队。”

这样的乐观未免有些太早。联合政府的成立不过是伊拉克新政府希望取得持久和平而必须克服的众多障碍中的一个。联合政府的首要任务是取消导致逊尼派、什叶派和库尔德人相互敌对的宪法规定。根据目前伊法律规定,负责进行上述宪法修改的议会委员会有四个月的时间完成这项任务。从5月3日伊拉克新议会的首次会议后,这四个月期限就开始进入倒计时。

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