Paul Lachine

Haushaltskonsolidierung unterbinden

NEW HAVEN – Die realen langfristigen Zinssätze, das heißt die Zinsen für inflationsgeschützte Anleihen, sind in vielen Teilen der Welt auf einen historischen Tiefstand gesunken. Diese ökonomische Tatsache ist von fundamentaler Bedeutung, da der reale langfristige Zinssatz ein direktes Maß für die Kosten von Krediten ist, mit denen Geschäfte geführt, neue Unternehmen gegründet oder existierende vergrößert werden – und das Zinsniveau widerspricht derzeit dem ganzen Gerede darüber, dass die staatlichen Defizite abgebaut werden müssen.

Nominale Zinssätze – die in Dollar, Euro, Renminbi usw. angegeben werden – sind schwer zu interpretieren, da die realen Kreditkosten bei diesen Zinssätzen von der zukünftigen Höhe der Inflation abhängig sind, die immer unbekannt ist. Wenn ich einen zehnjährigen Kredit in Euro für 4 % aufnehme, weiß ich, dass ich jedes Jahr 4 % des geschuldeten Kapitals als Zinsen in Euro zurückzahlen muss, aber ich weiß nicht, auf wie viel dies hinausläuft.

Wenn die Inflation ebenfalls 4 % pro Jahr beträgt, kann ich mir umsonst Geld leihen – und sogar für weniger als nichts, sollte die jährliche Inflation noch höher liegen. Doch wenn es in den nächsten zehn Jahren keine Inflation gibt, bezahle ich einen saftigen realen Preis für den Kredit. Man weiß es einfach nicht.

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