El combate reaccionario de Putin

MADRID – Los recientes éxitos diplomáticos de Rusia en relación con Siria e Irán, sumados a los tropiezos en política exterior del presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, pueden dar al presidente Vladímir Putin motivos para envalentonarse en su intento de posicionar a Rusia como un país capaz de desafiar el excepcionalismo estadounidense y el universalismo occidental. Pero el reciente discurso de Putin ante la Asamblea Federal de Rusia pareció más una muestra de su resentimiento por el estado marginal de Rusia en el contexto geopolítico internacional que el grito de batalla de un imperio en ascenso.

Es cierto que con Estados Unidos agotado por sus guerras infructuosas en Medio Oriente y Europa ensimismada en sus propias crisis, la defensa de un discurso multipolar es mucho más convincente ahora que en cualquier otro momento desde la Guerra Fría. Pero esto no modifica el hecho de que Rusia es una potencia en decadencia y que sus triunfos diplomáticos son logros meramente tácticos que no cambiarán el estado de cosas estratégico del mundo.

Así como en palabras de Lenin el comunismo era “todo el poder para los soviets más la electrificación de todo el país”, el putinismo podría definirse como armas nucleares más petróleo. En todo lo demás, la ventaja sigue siendo, claramente, de Occidente: los desafíos a los que se enfrentan Estados Unidos y Europa no son nada comparados con la decadencia demográfica de Rusia, la obsolescencia de sus fuerzas militares, la unidimensionalidad de su economía, su baja productividad y la constante agitación en el frente interno.

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