Poutine mène une bataille d'arrière-garde

MADRID – Les récents succès de la diplomatie russe en Syrie et en Iran et les faux pas de politique étrangère du président Obama ont enhardi le président Poutine dans sa posture de défi à l'égard de l'exceptionnalisme américain et de l'universalisme occidental. Pourtant son récent discours devant l'Assemblée fédérale de Russie était davantage l'expression de sa rancune face à la marginalisation géopolitique de son pays que le cri de bataille d'un empire montant.

L'Amérique étant épuisée par de vaines guerres au Moyen-Orient et l'Europe en pleine introspection du fait de la crise qu'elle traverse, le discours en faveur d'un monde multipolaire est plus convainquant aujourd'hui qu'à n'importe quel autre moment depuis la Guerre froide. Mais cela ne change rien au fait que la Russie est un pouvoir déclinant, dont les victoires diplomatiques sont de simples succès tactiques qui ne s'inscrivent pas dans une stratégie de transformation du monde.

Si, comme Lénine l'a dit, le communisme c'est "le pouvoir des Soviets plus l'électrification de tout le pays", le poutinisme se réduit à l'arme nucléaire et au pétrole. Dans tous les autres domaines, l'Occident conserve une avance incontestable : le déclin démographique de la Russie, son armée défraîchie, son économie unidimensionnelle, sa faible productivité et ses désordres intérieurs chroniques réduisent à peu de chose le défi qu'elle représente pour les USA et l'Europe.

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