普京无望的战斗

马德里——俄国近期在叙利亚和伊朗取得的外交成就,加之美国总统奥巴马的外交政策失误,使弗拉基米尔·普京总统在挑战美国特殊主义和西方普世主义的过程中更有底气。但普京最近对俄罗斯联邦议会的讲话与其说是一个崛起帝国的战斗呐喊,还不如说反应了普京对俄地缘政治边缘化的不满情绪。

可以肯定,随着中东地区的无果战争令美国筋疲力尽,欧洲也把注意力转向自身的危机,今天实现多极话语权的理由比冷战后任何时点都更有说服力。但这无法改变俄国日趋没落的现实,俄罗斯的外交胜利仅仅来源于战术上的成就,而战术成败改变不了世界总体战略格局。

如果如列宁所言共产主义是“苏维埃政权加上全国电气化”,那么核武器和石油开采则是普京主义的实质。西方在其他所有领域都保持着明显的优势:俄国下降的人口、落伍的军队、单调的经济、低下的生产率和长期的国内动荡远远超过了美欧所面临的难题。

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