Las negociaciones en una trampa estratégica

TEL AVIV – El proceso de paz entre israelíes y palestinos, obstaculizado por las diferencias irreconciliables entre las partes, siempre dependió del contexto estratégico regional. Nació, al fin y al cabo, a raíz de la primera Guerra del Golfo, y fue facilitado por las consecuencias regionales del fin de la Guerra Fría. En la actualidad, el proceso está moldeado por dos grandes dinámicas regionales, la denominada Primavera Árabe y el acuerdo nuclear con Irán.

El acuerdo con Irán se ha convertido en una de las crisis de confianza más graves de todos los tiempos en lo que refiere a las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y sus aliados en el Medio Oriente. A pesar de que no tienen otra alternativa, tanto a Israel como a los Estados árabes les resulta difícil confiar en los futuros compromisos que pudiese realizar Estados Unidos con relación a la seguridad de sus Estados. Para el primer ministro israelí, Benjamín Netanyahu, el presidente de EE.UU., Barack Obama traicionó a Israel cuando sacrificó al ex presidente de Egipto, Hosni Mubarak, y allanó el camino para el ascenso al poder de la Hermandad Musulmana. Ahora Obama ha blandido el cuchillo por segunda vez al llegar a un acuerdo con Irán, supuestamente a espaldas de Netanyahu.

La convencional sabiduría estratégica de Israel se basó en la ecuación  “Bushehr versus Yitzhar” , es decir, en la disposición de desmantelar los asentamientos en Cisjordania si se desmantelan las centrifugadoras iraníes en Bushehr. Según Netanyahu, esto no está ocurriendo.

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