Les douleurs de l'enfantement des États arabes

TEL AVIV – Pris de court par un État irakien en train de se déliter, stimulés par l'avancée rapide des milices de l'Étatislamique en Irak et au Levant (EIIL), les Américains et les Européens sont retombés dans leur penchant pour l'auto-flagellation. Et en effet, une importante part de responsabilité pour le tumulte en Irak, sans parler de la Syrie, provient sans aucun doute de l'héritage colonial pernicieux de l'Occident et des politiques aberrantes menées au Moyen-Orient arabe. Mais en fin de compte, la crise du monde arabe reflète la rencontre difficile d'une vieille civilisation avec les défis de la modernité.

La campagne irakienne du président américain George W. Bush a été extrêmement mal conçue, cela ne fait aucun doute, de même que l'échec ultérieur du président Barack Obama qui a tenu à laisser une force réserviste adéquate en Irak après le retrait des troupes des États-Unis. En effet, le départ précipité des États-Unis a permis à l'EIIL de gagner du terrain, tout en brouillant la frontière avec la Syrie. Dans son effort pour faire une place à un État islamique, l'EIIL a envahi la Syrie depuis Mossoul longtemps avant d'envahir Mossoul depuis la Syrie.

Mais l'histoire est souvent façonnée par des forces impersonnelles écrasantes (comme la religion, l'identité ethnique et les attitudes culturelles) qui ne sont pas réceptives à des solutions basées sur la force, ni a fortiori à une intervention par des armées étrangères. Même si les États-Unis n'ont jamais envahi l'Irak, il n'est pas exagéré de supposer que la transition avec le leadership de Saddam Hussein aurait été violente, avec un résultat ressemblant soit à la Syrie d'aujourd'hui, soit à la Yougoslavie des années 1990, quand une guerre civile brutale a pris fin en instaurant des clivages ethniques dans le pays.

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