阿拉伯国家的分娩之痛

特拉维夫—伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国(Islamic State in Iraq and Syria,ISIS)在军事上的快速推进让伊拉克陷入了国家分裂,这搞得美国人和欧洲人猝不及防,他们恢复了自我批评的倾向。事实上,伊拉克——更不用说叙利亚了——乱局的主要责任毫无疑问在于西方对阿拉伯中东殖民历史的贻害和错误政策。但凡是,说到底,阿拉伯世界的动荡反映了旧文明面对现代性的挑战是如何艰难。

平心而论,美国总统小布什的伊拉克工程是一场彻头彻尾的失败,正如总统奥巴马随后撤出美军时在伊拉克留下了太多的残留武装力量。事实上,美国犹豫不决的撤军让ISIS得以找到了滋生的土壤,也使得伊拉克和叙利亚边境不得安宁。在为建立伊斯兰国而奋斗的过程中,ISIS从摩苏尔入侵叙利亚远比从叙利亚入侵摩苏尔更早。

但历史总是由压倒性的非人力量决定的——如宗教、种族身份和文化态度——这些力量不容于基于武力的解决方案,更不用说外国军队的干预了。即使美国从未入侵伊拉克,侯赛因领导权的交接十有八九也会引起暴力,产生于今天的叙利亚或20世纪90年代的南斯拉夫类似的结果,野蛮内战的最终结局将是国家沿种族势力范围界线分裂。

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